In a day for the margins, Pakistan beat New Zealand to keep World Cup dream alive

It is not clear what New Zealand captain Kane Willamson’s religious inclinations are, but if he is a believer he might have found solace in this religious saying tonight: “I discovered my Lord in the breaking of my plans.”

Leading an unbeaten side coming into Thursday’s match against Pakistan at Birmingham, which Pakistan won by six wickets, Williamson saw all his best laid plans come to nought as his team was comprehensively beaten. The defeat was certainly not for want of planning. Pakistani journalist Hassan Cheema had noted that “being the best planned team at any tournament has become a part of New Zealand cricket’s identity”, and they spent much of this match doing the right things — only for those things to be rendered futile.

Consider this.

As per stats from ESPNCricinfo, during the first ten overs of this World Cup match, a wicket falls for every 14 shots played by batters where they were not in control (NIC). Today, after Williamson won the toss and chose to bat, New Zealand played only six NIC shots, yet lost three wickets. It was a start that confounded the statistics, and reminded cricket once again that Pakistan is that strange, magical team that exists on the very margins of mathematical possibilities; a team that lives amidst the wings of the butterfly whose flutters lead to a tsunami. Time and again, New Zealand played quality cricket and executed plans with the greatest probability for success, only for Pakistan to squeeze through the edges.

That early disaster for New Zealand was created by Shaheen Shah Afridi, a teenager who has been absolutely smashed in every match he has played since the team arrived in England. But here, he ran in with the assurance that Pakistani fast bowlers are destined to be rockstars, and it was now time for his solo. A capacity crowd that was almost entirely supporting Pakistan wasn’t allowed to step off the noise button during his entire spell, as he kept beating the bat and threatening to strike.

Afridi’s second wicket was another example of Pakistan’s propensity to confound probabilities. In the 2011 World Cup, Ross Taylor had edged behind and was dropped by Pakistan’s wicket-keeper, and his explosive innings afterwards cost Pakistan the match. But today, when Ross Taylor nicked, Pakistan’s captain Sarfaraz Ahmed was the wicketkeeper lying in wait — the same Sarfaraz who had been the unwitting star of a viral video where he was abused for his weigh; the same Sarfaraz pilloried in the press and online for his pudgy frame, his demoralized body language, his infamous yawn during the match against India. Here, that same lazy, unfit, much-maligned Sarfaraz flew to his side and took a one-handed catch to get rid of Taylor. Nine times out of ten, you’d expect a Pakistani fielder to drop that, but today wasn’t that day.

Williamson himself was his team’s oasis of calm throughout all this, and he looked increasingly at ease as the innings went on. But then Shadab Khan, whose eventual figures won’t reveal his impact, turned on his magic. With a wonderfully flighted delivery that took the thinnest of edges, Shadab broke through New Zealand’s best chances. Once again, it was the finest of margins, and once again, they broke Pakistan’s way.

Sarfaraz was also magnificent as captain, constantly making changes to keep the Kiwis on their toes, but his one mistake threatened to have cost the initiative. He followed Williamson’s wicket by introducing lesser bowlers rather than trying to attack with his strike bowlers. It allowed New Zealand to recover with a stable partnership, and the eventual target of 238 felt like the Kiwis had escaped Pakistan’s hold on the game. Teams chasing had only won 10 of 29 completed matches at the World Cup so far, and both of Pakistan’s wins had come batting first. The Kiwis’ choice to bowl first was part of the plan to make Pakistan do something they were likely to fail at, but again, it was a day for the margins.

A few weeks ago, speaking to Sharda Ugra of ESPNCricinfo, Babar Azam had said that “every player dreams of playing in [a World Cup] and it was my dream too… Each team brings their best bowling and you have to do extra preparation against every bowler who is here. You have to perform and … show the world that aap bhi aaye ho [make your presence felt].” And at Edgbaston on Thursday, Babar decided to show that he had arrived.

No Pakistani middle-order batter has made a 100 for 32 years in a World Cup. Indeed, in the past five editions including this one, Pakistan only has two 100s in total, scored against the weaker teams of Zimbabwe and Ireland. What Babar Azam did against New Zealand blew away all the previous data and set a new benchmark. On a pitch that was gripping and spinning sharply, against an opponent that never let up and in a match that was do-or-die, Babar’s hundred brought together his penchant for playing Instagram-friendly shots with the staying power of a Russian novel, and it led Pakistan to an eventually comfortable win.

But once again, the reality could have been so much different. According to data analysts’ Cricviz’s Wicket Probability Model, “the deliveries that were bowled to Babar today should have lead to... 3.3 wickets [i.e.] the average batsman, facing [those] balls would have been dismissed more than three times.” Moreover, Babar’s false shot percentage of 16% was the highest in a game he got a 100. New Zealand did all things that should have worked. Pakistan did all the things that actually did.

During the post-match press conference, Babar described one of the game’s moments of fortune with an aphorism noting that “jo bhi hota hai, achay ke liye hota hai” (whatever happens, happens for a good reason). It is another way of acknowledging the belief that humans can’t know what God/fate/probability intends for them. It’s also the only solace that Kane Williamson and his meticulously planned team can take for now: when Pakistan plays like this, meaning takes a back seat and the mysteries that exist in the margins bleed out into the center.