Explainer: Why Pakistan’s World Cup fate is out of its own hands

There are few experiences as exquisitely agonizing as supporting Pakistan cricket, and this current World Cup has been no exception. Pakistan’s early losses meant that it has been playing what are essentially knockout matches for the past three games, and has won each of them with a lot of drama and excitement.
With the World Cup nearing the end of its group stages, the final spots for the semifinal stage are still wide open. Prior to Sunday’s match between India and England, the top four sides on the points table were Australia, India, New Zealand and Pakistan. However, with a few matches to go, these positions could still change.
For Pakistan, the equation is out of their own hands. They would need to win their final match against Bangladesh to maximize their chances. However, they would also need England to lose at least one of their final two matches vs India and New Zealand. If England win both matches, Pakistan will almost certainly be eliminated.

The above is the simplest scenario for Pakistan. The other possibilities are more complicated, and far less likely to happen. For example, even if England wins both matches, Pakistan can theoretically still qualify. They could do this by dramatically improving their Net Run Rate in a big win against Bangladesh, and hope that England defeat New Zealand by a huge margin as well. However, the mathematical likelihood of this happening is very low.

Apart from Pakistan, Bangladesh, England and Sri Lanka all have a chance to qualify, while New Zealand could still potentially lose their spot. However, unlike England and New Zealand, the three Asian sides need other teams’ results to go in their favor in order to qualify. Mathematically, prior to the India vs England match, only Australia were assured of a semifinal spot. India needs one win from its final three games to confirm a spot.